From the Desk of Griffin Kennedy: The Republican Primary Thus Far Analyzed


Recent primaries and Caucuses happening right now in the election for the Republican Nominee will decide who is to run against Obama for Presidency in the November 2012 election. Many people don’t know is that this is the first time since 1980 where a different Nominee has each won Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.


Right before the Iowa caucus Gingrich’s campaign took a big hit. Over 4.5 million dollars spent on negative ads against Gingrich came from Mitt Romney and other interest organizations. When Gingrich confronted Romney about the ads Romney refused to rebuttal his attack and said it was illegal for Gingrich to repudiate the advertisements. Not to be thwarted, Gingrich continued on attempting to defend his public image in Iowa via public speeches. Gingrich did reveal that he felt that he had let his rivals “get the upper hand” by running a positive campaign and not harboring any attacks on the other candidates. The Gingrich story continued when Ron Paul bought TV ads attacking Gingrich for his apparent flip-flops on abortion. From these ads Paul gained more support in Iowa. Santorum’s campaign witnessed a huge surge in support almost out of nowhere on Election Day. On the night of the caucus, results indicated Romney had won Iowa, and Rick Santorum had only been 8 votes behind. However the next day when the results were certified Santorum was dignified the winner with 34 votes over Romney. After this Iowa poll Michelle Bachmann dropped out of the race.

New Hampshire:

New Hampshire was labeled as a “gimme state” for Romney. He had been consistently shown as the favorite in the state, and ended up winning with 39% of the vote. With his win, Romney gained 7 delegates the Republican National Convention. Ron Paul placed 2nd in New Hampshire –gaining 3 delegates, and Jon Huntsman came in 3rd to win three delegates. However, after New Hampshire Huntsman choose to back down from the race and began to back Romney.

South Carolina:

Since the 1980’s South Carolina has consistently voted for and elected the Republican Nominee. Romney, having won the last two caucuses, was looking more and more like a shoe in. However because Romney is considered a moderate among his contenders, and South Carolina has a large percent of evangelical social conservatives, it was not going to be an easy win for him. Gingrich started to launching negative campaigns towards Romney and even said in one of his public speeches, “If I don’t win the primary Saturday, [Republicans] will probably nominate a moderate. And the odds are fairly high he will lose to Obama.” Gingrich also started to urge both Perry and Santorum to drop out of the race so they could back him up in his campaign saying that “their support could aid the anti-Romney campaign.” Being so far behind Rick Perry did just that and dropped out of the race just 2 days before the election and helped Gingrich win the South Carolina primary.

Stay tuned for an analysis on the Florida Primary!

Article by Griffin Kennedy
Photo by D.H.

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